The EU will decide the fate of millions of Ukrainians: when a decision will be made regarding refugees.

The European Commission is preparing a proposal for Ukrainian refugees

The European Commission is preparing a proposal regarding the future of the Temporary Protection Directive for Ukrainians. The mechanism, which was introduced as an emergency solution for refugees from Ukraine, is currently testing the limits of European law.

Discussions are underway about a possible one-year extension of the directive, with a possible statement from member states about a phased lifting of protection. The issue may be resolved during the meeting of the Council on Internal Affairs and Justice on June 12-13.

'We are already on thin ice with the last extension,' said Martin Wagner, senior policy advisor at the International Centre for Migration Policy Development. 'A direct reading of the directive would mean that after three years, it would all be over.'

Most member states support the extension, but experts warn about the limited legal options for this.

Exit strategies on the agenda

According to EU diplomats, discussions about 'exit strategies' are gaining momentum due to changes in the geopolitical landscape. It is important to develop a transition strategy for those who plan to stay or return.

'If we do not provide an exit option from protection, we risk overwhelming national asylum systems - exactly what the directive was supposed to prevent,' warned an EU representative.

Alternative scenarios

One possible option is to narrow the scope of protection, excluding it during the return to Ukraine and blocking new arrivals. At the same Time, the creation of a new legal instrument is also being considered as an alternative.

'Every option, whether narrowing the scope or introducing a new instrument, mandatory or optional, has its complexities. Ultimately, we will have to ask: what happens after temporary protection? There is no escaping that,' summed up Martin Wagner.

Despite significant measures for Ukrainian refugees, plans for a gradual return to Ukraine have already been developed. Thus, the fate of Ukrainian refugees remains in the spotlight of the European Commission and EU member states.